Scenario & Pilot Lab — assumption-based simulation
Energy partner unavailable for 72 hours during a peak landing week
The lab presents scenario estimates and modelled outcomes for human review. A named role selects an option and records the reason, trade-offs, assumptions and confidence.
Affected node and dependencies
Baltic Wind — power supply to the processing line
Direct dependencies
- Processing line throughput
- Cold storage temperature hold
Second-order dependencies
- Wholesale delivery windows for two dominant channels
- By-product volume available to the feed loop
- Peak-week shift plan with the workforce partner
Exposed capacity and missing data
Night-shift processing capacity and low-season pallet positions
Missing data
- Site-level supply schedule for the winter period
- Reference valuation method for capacity exchanged without cash
- Independent incident history for the last two years
Isolated baseline
MODELLEDApprox. 38% of planned throughput held over 72 hours
Recovery: 5–7 days to clear the delivery backlog
Assumption-based estimate for a single organisation with no verified alternatives.
Three ecosystem configurations — cash-only, barter-supported and hybrid
MODELLEDSettlement detail — Barter-supported continuity
MODELLED- Resources or capabilities exchanged
- Party A: 120 pallet positions plus two logistics slots. Party B: power arrangement plus 16 maintenance hours.
- Reference valuation
- Reference valuation method: market rate per pallet position and per maintenance hour.
- Delivery window
- 72-hour incident window with a 14-day settlement close.
- Acceptance criteria
- Two-party delivery record per item and a signed balance statement.
- Operational constraints
- Requires an auditable agreement, reference valuation and acceptance criteria before delivery starts.
- Assumptions
- Partner capacity remains available during the same window · Reference valuation accepted by both parties
Review flags
- Legal validity review of the exchange agreement
- Tax treatment review in the applicable jurisdiction
- Accounting treatment and valuation review
- Counterparty and fulfilment risk review
Present tax treatment, legal validity and risk according to the applicable jurisdiction and agreement. Professional legal, tax and accounting review is required before a non-cash settlement is executed.
Human decision record
The model recommends. The named role decides.
Recommended for review: Hybrid settlement — it holds a similar continuity estimate to the cash-only option while reducing the cash outflow in the disruption week.
Complete the reason, trade-offs and assumptions to record the decision.
Decision history
No decision recorded in this session yet. Recorded decisions appear here with the role, timestamp, assumptions and confidence.
Phase 1 status of this prototype
Real in the prototype
Intake flow, file metadata handling, verification states, canvas, scenario comparison and decision records.
Modelled
Continuity, recovery and cost estimates derived from stated assumptions.
Illustrative
Paula Fish, Baltic Wind, White / Blue Talent and Circularity Lab records and barter values.
Future work
Funding and regulatory layer, donation ledger, Mutual Settlement Ledger, improvement loop and Replication Engine, plus database, storage and role-based access.